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C Voter Survey: AAP Looks Set To Win Punjab, BJP Set To Retain Up, Hung Assembly In Uttarakhand, Goa & Manipur


Despite the hype created around the party in the 2017 Assembly elections, the Aam Aadmi Party had fallen way behind the Congress when results were announced. It looks all set to turn the tables in the current elections.

According to a CVoter-ABP News opinion poll released on Monday evening, the AAP is set to win Punjab with a wafer-thin majority while the Congress appears to be way behind, with the Akali Dalled alliance and the BJP-led alliance in collaboration with former Congress chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh trail behind the two leading contenders.

According to the final results of the poll, the AAP is projected to win between a range of 55 to 63 seats – the upper end of the range ensuring a majority for the party for the first time.

The Congress which recently announced the state’s first Dalit Chief Minister as their CM candidate seems to be too far behind a majority with a projection of between 24 to 30 seats.

The alliance with the BSP doesn’t seem to have helped the Akali Dal which ruled Punjab in alliance with the BJP between 2007 and 2017. The alliance is projected to win between 20 to 26 seats in the elections.

The BJP-led alliance is nowhere in the picture, projected to win between 3 to 11 seats.

If the findings of the opinion poll hold true when results are declared on March 10, analysts blame the intense infighting within the Congress that seems set to offer Punjab on a platter to AAP. Again, if the polls turn out to be close to actual results, Arvind Kejriwal would be on his way to a role in national politics.

The final opinion poll results of the C-Voter ABP News were released in the evening on February 7, three days before the first round of polling in Uttar Pradesh on February 10.

According to the poll, the BJP led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is set to win a second successive term with a vastly reduced majority.

In Punjab, the AAP is now touching the majority mark according to the final results.

Uttarakhand seems too close to call with the BJP and the Congress literally neck and neck in the race.

According to the final tally, the BJP led alliance in UP is projected to win a majority with the number ranging from 225 to 237. The primary challenger, the SP led alliance led by former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to win between a range of 139 to 151 seats. The BSP led by Mayawati is fading to insignificance, projected to win between 13 to 21 seats. The Congress, despite a spirited campaign led by UP in charge and party General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains a marginal player, projected to win between 4 to 8 seats.

If the projections hold true, this will be the first time since 1989 that a party has managed to successfully retain power in the politically important state of Uttar Pradesh. For more than three decades, power has changed hands between the BJP, the SP and the BSP.

The BSP had won a majority in 2007 while the SP did the same in 2012. The BJP had won a massive mandate in 2017.

The poll does indicate anti-incumbency on some major issues, but not enough to prevent the BJP from retaining power. Analysts feel this victory, if it happens on March 10, will considerably enhance the stature of Yogi Adityanath in the party.

As surmised by analysts and political commentators who follow politics in Goa, the state is once again heading for a repeat performance of 2017 with a hung assembly in the current elections.

This was revealed by the final results of the C Voter ABP News opinion poll released on the evening of February 7. The poll results also show that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is on its way to becoming a serious player in Goa politics.

According to the results of the poll, the BJP is projected to win between 14 to 18 seats, well short of the majority mark of 21 seats in the Goa assembly which has 40 seats.

Far from gaining from anti incumbency after 10 years of BJP rule, the Congress is projected to win between 12 seats, 10 to 14 seats, way behind the majority mark.

The AAP had won no seats in 2017. That’s set to change. It is projected to win between 4 to 8 seats. The MGP retains its identity as a regional party, projected to win between 3 to 7 seats.

If the polls turn out to be true, there will be two major implications in national politics. The AAP would have emerged as a still small but nevertheless a party with a national footprint. It is in power in Delhi, set to win Punjab and make a mark in Uttarakhand as a party that has arrived.

A decent performance even in Goa would do wonders to the image and stature of party leader Arvind Kejriwal. The reverse would be true of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi if it fails to retain Punjab and fail to win Uttarakhand and Goa.

Covid-19 positive voters can cast ballot after wearing PPE gear: Goa poll guidelines.

If the predictions and projections hold true, Uttarakhand promises to be literally a neck and neck fight.

This was revealed when final seat projections were announced by the CVoter-ABP News opinion poll released on Monday evening.

It will be an agonising wait for both the Congress and the BJP. When the BJP changed three Chief Ministers in a span of six months in 2021, it looked like a cakewalk for the Congress, with former Chief Minister Harish Rawat still being projected as the most preferred Chief Minister. Going by the poll results, it will not be that easy.

The BJP is reminded of bitter memories of 2012 when its sitting government won just one seat less than the Congress and lost power. Incidentally, the party had made a “last minute” Chief Ministerial change even then.

According to the final results of the poll, the Congress is projected to win between 30 to 36 seats. Incidentally, 36 is the magic majority mark in Uttarakhand.

The BJP is projected to win between 31 to 37 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party which made a determined effort to emerge as a serious contender, trails far behind with a projected range of 2 to 4 seats. It is very difficult to hazard even a guess when such a tight finish is being projected, just as it was in 2012 when the Congress finally pipped the BJP to the post.

If it does, the two main reasons according to analysts will be anti-incumbency against the BJP government along with the popularity of Harish Rawat. If the Congress fails, one big reason could be the AAP cutting into the anti-BJP vote share.



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