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Liberal and Conservative dead heat for first while NDP trails: POLL 

Harper, Trudeau, Mulcair

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 27th, 28th, and 29th, 2015) released September 30th, 2015 (6am Eastern)

At a glance

  • National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking shows a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives for first place with the NDP trailing. Support for the Liberals stands at 32.2%, followed by support for the Conservatives at 32.1%, 26.3% for the NDP and 4.4% for the Greens nationally.
  • Regional Races – The Liberals are leading in Atlantic Canada while the Conservatives continue to lead in the Prairie provinces. The NDP are ahead in Quebec but a potential three-way race for second may be emerging. BC is a tight three-way race among the federal parties. In battleground Ontario, the Liberals have a marginal advantage over the Conservatives and the NDP trails in third.

 

Survey Methodology

  • A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
  • The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

 

 

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