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Majority Supports Liberal-NDP Government, Regardless of Who Leads It 

Race narrows as NDP support dips: Abacus Data Inc.

Friday, September 04, 2015

Toronto  – With recent polling showing a high likelihood of a minority government in Ottawa following the election on October 19th, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News has found that a majority of eligible voters in Canada would support a Liberal-NDP government regardless of who leads it, while roughly only one in three supports any version of a governing-partnership that includes the Tories.

The poll tested six permutations of government, and there is a clear preference among Canadians for two versions – both of which exclude the Conservatives:

  • NDP governing with support from the Liberals – 55% support (20% strongly/35% somewhat) vs. 45% oppose (25% strongly/20% somewhat). A majority of both NDP (87%) and Liberal (68%) voters support this type of government.
  • Liberals governing with support from the NDP – 53% support (15% strongly/38% somewhat) vs. 47% oppose (25% strongly/22% somewhat). A majority of both Liberal (87%) and NDP (66%) voters support it.
  • Conservatives governing with support from the Liberals – 35% support (7% strongly/28% somewhat) vs. 65% oppose (39% strongly/25% somewhat). While most (67%) Tories support this composition of government, only 31% of Liberals do.
  • Liberals governing with support from the Conservatives – 35% support (5% strongly/30% somewhat) vs. 65% oppose (34% strongly/31% somewhat). A slim majority (56%) of Liberals support this arrangement, while only 35% of Tories do.
  • Conservatives governing with support from the NDP – 32% support (6% strongly/26% somewhat) vs. 68% oppose (38% strongly/30% somewhat). A slim majority (55%) of Tories support this composition of government, but only 25% of NDP voters support it.
  • NDP governing with support from the Conservatives – 32% support (7% strongly/25% somewhat) vs. 68% oppose (36% strongly/32% somewhat). A minority of both NDP (44%) and Conservative (26%) voters support this arrangement.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 24 to 26, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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