Close race continues, Liberals and Conservatives numerically tied Nanos National Nightly Tracking
Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 20th, 21st, and 22nd, 2015) released September 23rd, 2015 (6am Eastern)
At A Glance
• National Ballot – The latest ballot tracking remains a close three way race with the Liberals and Conservatives numerically tied. The Liberals are at 31.6%, the Conservatives at 31.5% followed by the NDP at 29.1, and the Green Party at 4.2% nationally.
• Second Choice – Among committed first choice Liberal voters, 50% said their second choice was the NDP followed by the Conservatives at 18% and no second choice 16%. For committed first choice Conservatives, 47% had no second choice followed by the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 20%. For committed first choice NDP voters, 47% had the Liberals as their second choice followed by the Greens at 17% and no second choice at 12%.
A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.