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Conservatives and Liberals in a tight national race – NDP trend down in Ontario: POLL 

Harper, Trudeau, Mulcair

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 25th, 26th, and 27th, 2015) released September 28th, 2015 (6am Eastern)

At a glance

  • National Ballot – The Nanos nightly tracking suggests that a two-way race may be emerging between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Support for the Conservatives stands at 33.0%, with the Liberals at 31.6%, the NDP at 26.9%, and the Greens at 3.6% nationally.
  • Battleground Ontario – Ontario is a dead heat between the Liberals who are at 38.9% and the Conservatives who are at 38.1%. Support for the NDP has slid the last two days in Ontario and stands at 19.4% while support for the Greens is at 3.6%.


Survey Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.


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