Conservatives Lead as NDP Slips: POLL
(Toronto, ON) – A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted before Friday night’s TVA debate, finds the Conservatives holding onto a lead with the NDP slipping. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.36%, 19 times out of 20.
“The National stalemate that dominated the vast majority of this election campaign appears to be at an end,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “As the campaign enters the final two weeks, the Conservatives (37%) have opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals (29%). The Liberals have now also opened up a substantial lead over the NDP who have dropped to just 24% among decided and leaning voters.”
“In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and Provinces and those results seemed to point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and Liberals. When we look across the National picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the Conservatives.”
“In British Columbia, where early campaign polls showed a significant NDP lead, we found them trailing the Conservatives and a surging Liberal vote, these numbers reflect a slight comeback from those numbers but continued Conservative and Liberal strength. British Columbia will be home to the most close three way races we can expect to see on October 19th.”
“In Ontario, we found that provincial NDP supporters were the least brand loyal to their federal cousins and had dropped well back of the Conservatives and Liberals. These results continue to show weakness for the NDP and Tom Mulcair in Ontario where a full third of the seats are found. Regional races here will be the key, and many close races could be decided with ground game efforts in these closing two weeks.”
“Quebec is now arguably a four way race between a sagging NDP and the surging Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois. The vote in Quebec is the most volatile of any across Canada and it will be hard to get a clear picture of ballot results until just days before the election. The only thing that is clear, is that the NDP stranglehold on support they enjoyed for most of this campaign has been reduced significantly. ”
“Atlantic Canada continues to show strong support for the Liberal party with the NDP and Conservatives in a close 2nd and 3rd position. It is hard to imagine anything less than a dominant election day performance by the Liberals across the Atlantic provinces with the NDP and Conservatives holding on to just a few seats.”
“Alberta will be the most interesting province to follow on election night as the province wide picture masks some interesting regional races in both Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP surge that began with a victory for Rachel Notley’s NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta but we still expect the vast majority of seats here to remain Conservative.”
“In Saskatchewan we find a continued lead by the Conservatives and the NDP continue in second place, with some signs of life for the surging Liberals. We would expect to see competitive races mostly in the Saskatoon and Regina ridings, with the Conservatives largely dominating rural Saskatchewan.”
“Manitoba is another Province where we expect the Liberals to make significant gains, they continue to close on the leading Conservatives and break away from a sagging NDP. Expect some big upsets here on October 19th based on what we are seeing today, a few weeks out from election day,” he finished.