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Federal NDP maintain solid lead 

Headed for slim minority

TORONTO August 10th, 2015- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1392 Canadian voters, just more than one third will vote NDP in the coming federal election (34%), while just more than a quarter will vote Conservative (28%) or Liberal (27%). Few will vote Green (4%) or Bloc Quebecois (6%) or for anyone else (1%).

NDP headed for slim minority

If these results are projected up to the new 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would take 125 seats to 120 seats for the Conservatives. The Liberals would capture 89 seats, the Bloc would seat 3 members and the Greens would retain their single seat.

 

NDP slips slightly, Liberals increase

These findings stand in contrast to last week, immediately after the election was called, when as many as 4-in-10 were prepared to vote NDP (39%) and just one quarter were voting Liberal (25%). The Conservative vote has not changed since then (August 2 – 28%).

NDP lead in BC, Quebec, tied in Ontario

The three main parties are at parity in battleground Ontario (NDP – 33%, Conservatives and Liberals – 31% each), while the NDP leads in Quebec (37%), outstripping the Liberals (22%) and the Bloc (21%). In the Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead (41%), while the NDP (28%) and the Conservatives (25%) are tied, while in the prairies, the Conservatives lead (43%) and the Liberals (27%) and NDP (26%) are tied for second. In Alberta, the Conservatives are dominant (44%), and the NDP are a distant second (32%). In BC, the NDP lead (38%) and the Conservatives (27%) and Liberals (29%) are tied in second.

Mulcair preferred as best PM

Tom Mulcair has a slight as the best Prime Minister (28%), compared to one quarter for Stephen Harper (25%) and just fewer for Justin Trudeau (23%); Harper is seen to be best for foreign affairs, security; Mulcair for environment, both for economy.

Harper best for foreign affairs, security; Mulcair for environment; both for economy

Stephen Harper is tied with Tom Mulcair (30% to 29%) for who could handle the economy best, and Justin Trudeau lags slightly (26%). Harper is clearly preferred for national security (35%) to Mulcair (26%) or Trudeau (21%), and he is also preferred for foreign affairs (31%), while Mulcair (26%) and Trudeau are tied (27%). Tom Mulcair is clearly seen to be the best for handling the environment (36%), trailed by Trudeau (25%) and, distantly, by Harper (15%).

“It appears last week’s bump for the NDP wasn’t just giddy exhilaration brought on by the election call. People have had more than a week to absorb this campaign, to watch the candidates and fill up on the media, and they’re sticking with the progressive alternative. Among the signs this isn’t temporary are that Tom Mulcair is equally likely to be seen as the best steward of the economy as the Prime Minister, who has always owned that measure himself,” said Forum

NDP headed for slim minority

If these results are projected up to the new 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would take 125 seats to 120 seats for the Conservatives. The Liberals would capture 89 seats, the Bloc would seat 3 members and the Greens would retain their single seat.

Methodology

The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1392 randomly selected Canadians 18 years of age or older. The poll was conducted on August 10th and 11th, 2015.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp

Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.

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