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Liberals (33%, +2) Edge into First Place over NDP (30%, -2), Conservatives (27%, -2), Driven by Vote-Rich Ontario : POLL 

Harper, Mulcair, Tru

Liberals (41%) Have Sizeable Lead over Conservatives (32%), NDP (24%) in Battleground Ontario

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Toronto, ON – The rallying Liberals have edged into first place over the NDP while the Conservatives continue a slow slide that began at the start of the summer, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. The national numbers are heavily influenced by what is happening in vote-rich Ontario, where the Liberals have opened up a sizeable lead over their adversaries.

If the election were held tomorrow, 33% of decided eligible voters would vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals (up 2 points since last week), while 30% would vote for Thomas Mulcair and the NDP (down 2 points). The Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 27% of the decided popular vote (down 2 points).

Support for Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc has ticked up by 1 point to 5% of the vote nationally (23% in Quebec), while the Green Party led by Elizabeth May would receive 4% of the vote (unchanged). One in ten (13%) eligible voters indicate that they are unsure (10%) of who they would vote for or say that they wouldn’t vote (3%). Only 44% of voters say they’re ‘absolutely certain’ of their vote choice, with the majority (56%) of voters yet to lock in their choice.

The bump in national support for the Liberals is largely a function of gains made in Ontario and Alberta:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) have a sizeable lead over the Conservatives (32%) and NDP (24%), with the Green Party (3%) well back.
  • In Quebec, the NDP (37%) retains its solid lead over the Liberals (24%), Bloc (23%), Conservatives (13%) and Green Party (3%).
  • In British Columbia, the NDP (36%) leads the Conservatives (28%), Liberals (24%), Green Party (10%) and other parties (1%).
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (39%) are ahead of the NDP (31%), Liberals (29%), Green (1%) and other parties (1%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (44%) are ahead of the NDP (34%), Liberals (21%) and the Green Party (1%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (49%) hold their long-standing lead over the NDP (30%), Conservatives (18%) and Green Party (2%).

Trudeau Named as Winner of Economic Debate, But Still Trails Mulcair as Best PM…

Among voters who watched the economic leaders’ debate hosted by the Globe and Mail, four in ten (40%) say that Justin Trudeau won the debate, placing him squarely ahead of Thomas Mulcair (32%) and third-place finisher Stephen Harper (28%).

Looking ahead to which party and leader would be best able to deal with the weak performance of Canada’s economy, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals (34%, +1), and Thomas Mulcair and the NDP (34%, -2) share this distinction, slightly ahead of Prime Minister Harper and the Tories (31%, unchanged).

On the topic of who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada overall, Thomas Mulcair (38%, +2) still has a sizeable lead over Justin Trudeau (32%, unchanged) and Stephen Harper (30%, -2), despite dipping to second place in the popular vote horserace.

More Voters Favour Balanced Budget to Deficit Spending…

Given the importance of the economy to this election, various ideas and policy planks were tested to understand which Canadians agree with, and which they don’t. On the differentiating issue of whether Canada should maintain balanced budgets or go into deficit to spur the economy, more agree that a balanced budget is critically important (74%) than agree that Canada must go into deficit in order to fund infrastructure programs to stimulate the economy (45%). The proportion that agrees and disagrees with each policy is listed below.

Underlying Metrics Supporting Incumbent Government are Weak…

Underscoring the troubles of the incumbent Conservative government, just 45% say they ‘approve’ (9% strongly/36% somewhat) of the Federal Government’s overall management of the Canadian economy, which is down 3 points since August. In contrast, a majority (55%) ‘disapproves’ (20% strongly/35% somewhat) of its performance.

More generally, four in ten (40%) ‘approve’ (10% strongly/30% somewhat) of the performance of the Conservative government under Stephen Harper, while 60% ‘disapprove’ (36% strongly/24% somewhat), unchanged since last week.

Moreover, most (61%) voters believe that Canada is heading off on the ‘wrong track’, while only 39% think things are headed in the ‘right direction’. In August, 56% said things were on the wrong track, while 41% said things were heading in the right direction, and 3% didn’t know. Given these figures, the desire for change remains strong: seven in ten (71%) believe it is ‘time for another federal party to take over’ (up 1 point), compared to the 29% who think the ‘Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election’ (down 1 point).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 18 to 21, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1103 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel (comprising ~150,000 panelists) and non-panel sources (river sampling). Given Ipsos’ use of river sampling and a router to match respondents who may not qualify for other surveys with one they do qualify for (such as this poll), it is not possible to identify the number of respondents invited to participate in the survey, or a traditional measure of response rate. Weighting by region, age, gender and political variables was employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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