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Liberals emerging with lead in national election race, Conservatives steady, NDP slide for 10th night of tracking in succession: POLL 

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (October 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, 2015) released October 5th, 2015 (6 am Eastern)

At a glance

  • National Ballot – The trend on ballot preferences is currently favouring the Liberals while the Tories remain steady and the NDP registered a decline for the tenth night in succession. Support for the Liberals stands at 35.6% followed by the Conservatives at 31.0%, the NDP at 22.8% and the Greens at 4.7%.
  • Quebec Race – The complexion of the race in Quebec is also starting to shift. From a high of 50% support at the beginning of the campaign the NDP have slid to 30.1% and are statistically tied with the Liberals who registered 28.1%. The BQ and Conservatives are tied for third with 20.4% (BQ support) and 17.4% (CP Support) respectively in Quebec.

 

Survey Methodology

  • A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
  • The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

 

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