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POLL: Liberals hit an election high – largely at expense of the NDP 

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (October 11th, 13th, and 14th, 2015) released October 15th, 2015 (6 am Eastern)

At a glance

  • National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals at 37.1% followed by the Conservatives at 29.4%, the NDP at 23.7%, and the Greens at 4.3% nationally.
  • One Month Change – A month ago it was practically a three way tie between the major parties in the federal election. In the past 30 days the Liberals have gained about seven points (from 29.6% to 37.1%), the NDP have dropped about six points (from 30.4% to 23.7%) and the Conservatives have remained relatively unchanged (from 31.0% to 29.4%) factoring the margin of error for the research.

Survey Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

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