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Liberals in the lead: POLL 

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (October 9th, 10th, and 11th, 2015) released October 12th, 2015 (6 am Eastern)

At a glance

National Ballot – The latest Nanos tracking completed on the holiday weekend has the Liberals at 35.7% nationally followed by the Conservatives at 28.9%, the NDP at 24.3% and the Greens at 4.8%.

Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would vote for each federal party, 52.7% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 42.3% would consider voting for the NDP, 38.1% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 26.3% would consider voting for the Greens and 34.3% of Quebecers would consider voting for the BQ.

Survey Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

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