Liberals Lead in Toronto, Trail Downtown
September 11, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal Party leading in Toronto but facing tight races in Etobicoke. Meanwhile, it is the NDP who lead in Downtown Toronto where they are holding on to the 44% they captured in 2011. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.98%, 19/20. Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.
“The 416 has turned into a number of smaller regional races,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “In Etobicoke and North York, it is between the Conservative and Liberal parties, in the downtown it is a two way race between the NDP and the Liberals, with a strong Liberal lead found in Scarborough.
“The Liberal party has rebounded across Ontario and specifically in the 416. In Etobicoke, they are statistically tied with the Conservative Party with 42% to 41% with a distant third for the NDP at just 13%. In North York, the Liberals lead by 10%, 46% to 36% with the NDP at just 16%. In Scarborough, the Liberals have opened up a 20 point lead over the NDP at 47% to 26% and the Conservatives not far behind at 25%. In the downtown, the NDP enjoy a 7% spread with the second place Liberals at 44% to 37% with the Conservatives not surprisingly back at just 16%.”
“The most interesting numbers are the current decided vote compared to 2011 election results. Conservative support has dropped by 7% in Scarborough, 4% in the Downtown and 3% in North York but has increased by 2% in Etobicoke. The NDP have maintained their vote in the Downtown at 44%, have dropped by 6% in Etobicoke, 4% in North York and 6% in Scarborough. Liberals have increased across the board from their historical lows in 2011. Up 12% in Scarborough, 8% in North York, 3% in Etobicoke and 6% in the downtown.”
“What this will mean for seat counts for each of the parties is hard to say with new ridings in the region and many close races expected in ridings across Toronto,” continued Maggi.
“Most people said they supported the transit plan of the Liberal Party at 25% compared to 18% for the NDP and the Conservatives equally. With 38% indicating they aren’t sure, there is opportunity for each of the parties and leaders to secure votes ahead of the Oct 19 vote on this issue. Transit is a big part of Toronto life for many, and was an important issue in the 2014 Provincial and Mayoral elections, it will have an impact on voters again in 2015,” he finished.
Regional margins of error:
Downtown +/- 3.49%; Scarborough +/- 3.96%; Etobicoke +/- 4.13%; North York +/- 4.6%