Major federal parties gripped in a very tight three way race
Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 8, 9 and 10, 2015) released September 11th, 2015 (6am Eastern)
The latest nightly tracking suggests that the race is gripped in a three
way tie with the Liberals and Conservatives both with 31% of decided voters, the
NDP with 30% support and the Green Party with 5% support.
• The Regions
The Liberals register the highest level of support in Atlantic
Canada and Ontario. The Conservatives are the strongest party in the Prairie
provinces (and are trending up in that region). The New Democrats continue to
hold a commanding lead in Quebec. The race in British Columbia has been
tightening up over the past three days.
• Vote Potential
Asked whether they would consider or not consider voting for
each of the federal parties through a series of independent questions, 50% of
Canadians would consider voting for the NDP, 49% would consider voting Liberal,
40% would consider voting Conservative, 22% would consider voting Green and
25% would consider voting BQ (Quebec only).
A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200
Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three
day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The
daily tracking figures are based on a three day rolling sample comprised of 1,200
interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the
oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is
±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.
The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered
by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research
has been registered with the Marketing Research and IntelligenceAssociation of which Nanos is a member.