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NDP marginally trails both the Conservatives and Liberals 

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 26th, 27th, and 28th, 2015) released September 29th, 2015 (6 am Eastern)

At a glance

  • National Ballot – For the third night in succession the NDP marginally trails both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Support for the Conservatives stands at 32.6% followed by the Liberals who are at 31.4%, the NDP at 27.0%, and the Greens at 4.0% nationally.
  • Regional Races – The Liberals maintain a comfortable advantage over the other parties in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the NDP are the top choice but their advantage is diminishing with the Liberals second and the Conservatives and BQ tied for third with the BQ still trending up. Ontario is a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives while the Conservatives have a comfortable lead in the Prairies. In BC the NDP and Conservatives are in a tight race.

Survey Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

 

 

 

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