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New Poll Shows NDP (34%, +1) Remains in Lead with Grits (30%, Unchanged), Tories (29%, Unchanged) Stalking Closely 

Battleground Ontario a Tie between the Grits (36%) and Tories (35%), NDP (29%) Close; BC a Three-Way Race among NDP (37%), Liberals (31%) and Tories (28%)

 

Toronto, ON – With the arrival of Labour Day marking the unofficial end to the summer vacation season, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News has revealed that the NDP remains in first place as the campaign kicks into high gear.

If the election were held tomorrow, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 34% of the decided eligible vote (up 1 point since Ipsos’ last poll), while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals (30%, unchanged) and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives (29%, unchanged) remain locked in a statistical tie for second position. The Bloc under Gilles Duceppe would receive 3% of the vote nationally (down 1 point), or 14% in Quebec, while Elizabeth May and the Green Party would receive 3% of the popular vote (down 1 point). Two in ten say they either wouldn’t vote (3%) or are unsure of how they would vote (14%).

The path to victory is found in the regional figures:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (35%) are tied, although the NDP (28%) isn’t far behind.
  • In Quebec, the NDP (47%) has a commanding lead over the Liberals (20%), Conservatives (15%), Bloc (14%) and Green Party (4%).
  • In British Columbia, the NDP (37%) leads but the Liberals (31%) and Conservatives (28%) are still in the hunt, making this a three-way race along with Ontario. The Green Party (4%) is trailing.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (45%) have a lead over the NDP (35%), Liberals (17%) and Green Party (3%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (46%) are in the driver’s seat while the Liberals (25%) and NDP (21%) are well behind, with the Green Party (6%) trailing.
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (57%) have a commanding lead over the NDP (29%), Tories (8%) and Green Party (6%).

The sentiment for change is still strong, as most (71%) Canadians believe it’s ‘time for another federal party to take over’, compared to just 29% who think that the ‘Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election’, unchanged since Ipsos’ last poll. The sentiment for change is strong, despite the fact that four in ten (38%) voters ‘approve’ (10% strongly/28% somewhat) of the performance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative government. Most (62%) ‘disapprove’ (37% strongly/24% somewhat) of its performance. These figures are also unchanged.

Just 44% of voters say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ of their vote choice, meaning a majority has not yet locked in their ballot selection. Tory voters (53%) are most likely to say they’re absolutely certain of their choice, while NDP (41%) and Liberal (40%) voters are less likely to say so. The data suggest that most of the vote movement likely to happen throughout the duration of the campaign is to be among current Liberal and NDP voters:

  • Among NDP voters, 48% would vote for the Liberals as their second choice, while few would vote for the Conservatives (10%), Bloc (6%) or some other party (12%). One quarter (24%) is unsure of who they would vote for as their second choice.
  • Among Liberal voters, 57% would choose the NDP second, while fewer would vote for the Tories (15%), Bloc (1%) or some other party (9%), while 18% don’t know who they’d pick second.
  • Among Tory voters, half (47%) say they don’t know who they would pick second. Others would be split between the Liberals (24%), NDP (17%) or some other party (11%).

 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 4 to 8, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 949 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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