No breakaway movement for any major federal party
Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 6, 8 and 9, 2015) released September 10th, 2015 (6am Eastern)
Ballot – Although the Liberals and the NDP still register higher numeric support compared to the Conservatives (32% for the Liberals and 31% for the NDP), the Conservatives in the tracking completed last evening were at 29% with no party breaking away from the pack.
Second Choice – There continues to be a high level of potential cross over between the Liberals and the NDP. Fifty-seven per cent of Liberals identify the NDP as their second choice (13% of Liberals said they had no second choice) while 50% of NDP supporters said their second choice was the Liberal (15% of NDP supporters said they had no second choice). Twenty eight per cent of Conservatives said the Liberals were their second choice followed by 18% who said the NDP were their second choice (45% of Conservatives said they had no second choice).
Survey Methodology 11 A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2014 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.