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Rallying Harper Tories (35%) Break Stalemate and Shoot to Early 2015 Lead Over Liberals (31%) and NDP (24%) 

Trudeau Grits Falter as Ontario, Quebec Show a Turn Towards Tories


Friday, January 16, 2015

Toronto, ON – The ringing in of 2015 not only brings new resolutions, but another trip to the ballot box for Canadians sometime this year, and according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of Global News, the Prime Minister and his party enjoy an early 2015 lead after ending 2014 tied with Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party.

If the election were held tomorrow Canadians would choose consistency over a changing of the guard: nationally, the Conservatives (35%, up 2 points from December 2014) would edge the Trudeau-led Liberals (31%, down 3 points). This latest wave of polling shows that the tide has gone out on the seven point Liberal lead in September 2014 and would be converted into a fourth consecutive mandate for Prime Minister Harper if the election were held tomorrow.

The Thomas Mulcair-led Official Opposition NDP (24%, no change) continues their traction-less trend seen throughout most of 2014, which is down 7 points from their 2011 election surge. Fewer Canadians would support Mario Beaulieu’s Bloc Quebecois at 6% nationally (+1 point, 25% in Quebec) or Elizabeth May’s Green Party (4%, no change). One in five (17%) Canadians would still be undecided, which is up 2 points from December.

A number of factors could be helping to drive the Conservative vote higher: first, the House in not in session so the government is able to escape the daily barrage of Question Period; second, the with oil prices plummeting the future of the Canadian economy is shaky, and economic management is typically seen as a Tory advantage; third, with terrorism firmly on the minds of Canadians, Harper has traditionally been seen as a global leader against terrorism.

As if to underscore the current voter strength of the Conservatives, Ipsos polling in the last quarter of 2014 revealed that Stephen Harper’s approval rating (49%) was the highest since March 2012 (47%) and much higher than the 38% he received during May 2011 when his party won an electoral majority.

Examining Key Battleground Races…

A new election year also brings with it a change in electoral boundaries, with the addition of 30 new ridings to Canada’s electoral map. This will make key battleground races even more crucial to attaining victory in Canada’s 42nd federal election.

  • In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.
  • In Quebec, the NDP (31%, up 2 points) have bypassed the Liberal (24%, down 8 points) lead seen at the end of 2014, with the resurgent Bloc Quebecois (25%, up 4 points) jockeying with the Liberals for second place. The Conservatives (18%, up 3 points) and other parties (2%, down 1 point) lag noticeably.
  • In British Columbia, the three-way race continues, this time with the Liberals (34%, up 6 points) slightly edging the Tories (30%, down 3 points) and the NDP (28%, down 3 points) although all are within striking distance of each other, while other parties (8%, no change) trail.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (58%, no change), as expected, continue to have a solid lead over the Liberals (23%, down 1 point), NDP (16%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, up 1 point).
  • In Saskatchewan /Manitoba, the Conservatives (46%) hold a noticeable advantage over the Liberals (33%) and the NDP (20%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the commanding Liberal lead (41%, down 12 points) has weakened but is still prominent, still besting the NDP (29%, up 10 points), Conservatives (26%, no change), and other parties (4%, up 2 points).

The data also show a tight battle among many other demographic constituencies:

  • Among men, the Tories (37%, up 1 point) barely best the Liberals (33%, down 2 points), ahead of the NDP (22%, up 1 point), Bloc (5%, up 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among women, preference has shifted to the Conservatives (34%, up 4 points) and away from the Liberals (29%, down 5 points), with support for the NDP (26%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, no change) remaining consistent since last month.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Tories (41%, up 2 points) continue to enjoy their traditional advantage over the Liberals (33%, up 1 point), NDP (19%, down 3 points), Bloc (3%, no change) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among those aged 35 to 54, tight battle seen last month has led to a clear Conservative lead (39%, up 6 points) over the Liberals (30%, down 5 points), with the NDP (21%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (3%, down 1 point) trailing.
  • Among those aged 18 to 34, the NDP (36%, up 8 points) have jumped to a solid lead over the Liberals (28%, down 9 points) and Conservatives (22%, down 2 points), while the Bloc (8%, down 1 point) and other parties (6%, up 3 points) lag.

(Click to enlarge image)
We want to know what you think about federal politics and what our latest polling numbers mean to you. Have your say at In My Humble Opinion (IMHOIpsos) now! IMHOIpsos is a discussion forum for Canadians to share their opinions on politics, social issues, the economy, and more. Join us:http://imho.ipsos.ca/

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between January 6 and 11, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,915Canadians (including 1,514 decided voters) from Ipsos’ Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ – 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

Courtesy :- http://www.ipsos-na.com/

Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers remarks at India's National Day Gala. courtesy:- Pm.gc.ca

Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers remarks at India’s National Day Gala.
courtesy:- Pm.gc.ca

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