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Spadina-Fort York Heats Up 

September 16, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a tight race between the NDP’s Olivia Chow and the Liberal’s Adam Vaughan. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet previously polled Spadina—Fort York – before Olivia Chow formally announced her candidacy. The previous poll, conducted June 27th, found Chow at 36% (Now 34%, -2%) and Vaughan at 30% (no change) among all voters. The change for Chow is within the poll’s margin of error. The Conservatives are down 2% to 10%, the Greens down 2% to 3% and Undecided voters have jumped to 23% from 17% (+6%).

“Olivia Chow continues to hold on to the lead in Spadina-Fort York against Liberal incumbent Adam Vaughan,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “When we polled this matchup ahead of the election as a scenario, Chow led by a larger margin and now that the race has been reailized, support levels have settled.”

“This race will be a clash of political titans in Toronto between Chow, a star candidate, former MP and Mayoral hopeful vs former City Councillor and current MP Adam Vaughan. Both are touted to play significant roles in Ottawa. ”

“This riding is a challenge for campaigns with a high concentration of condominiums in the south end with hard to reach populations. Those groups of voters could have an impact on outcome on October 19th.”

“A real positive for the Liberal campaign is the lead among undecided leaning voters where Adam Vaughan leads the NDP with 17% compared to 11%. With over a month to election day, there remains opportunity for the two leading campaigns,” he finished.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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