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Three main parties within margin of error – Proportion of accessible voters for NDP declines: POLL 

Harper, Mulcair, Tru

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 18th , 19th ,  and 20th , 2015) released September 21st , 2015 (6am Eastern)

  • National Ballot – Nightly tracking on ballot preferences suggests that the three main parties are still within the margin of error for the research. The latest nightly ballot tracking has the Conservatives with 31.0%, the Liberals with 29.4%, the NDP with 29.1%, and the Greens with 5.5% nationally. The margin of error for the subset of decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  • Accessible Voters – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, the Liberals have the highest level of accessible voters (48.9%) and the proportion of accessible voters for the NDP is sliding (44.9% last evening compared to 51.3% a week ago). For the Conservatives, 39.1% of Canadians would consider voting for that party; 25.8% of Canadians would consider voting Green and 26.8% of Quebecers would consider voting BQ.


Survey Methodology
A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%,19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

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