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Three – way contest for major parties continues:Poll 

Harper, Mulcair, Tru

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (September 13th, 14th, and 15th, 2015) released September 16th, 2015 (6am Eastern)


  • National Ballot
The tight race continues with only 2.6 percentage points separating the three major federal parties. The NDP, Liberals and Conservatives have been gripped in a three way tie for the past six nights of tracking. Support for the NDP among decided voter stands at 31.6% followed by the Liberals at 30.1%, the Conservatives at 29.0% and the Green Party at 5.3%.

  • Undecided Voters
Based on the tracking completed last night, the proportion of undecided voter stands at 9.7% which is lower than usual for the distance to election day. One month ago, near the beginning of the campaign, the undecided stood at 16.7%.
Survey Methodology
A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8%,19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

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