Tight race between Liberals and NDP continues – Tories remain in third behind both opposition parties.
At a glance
Ballot – The overnight movement between all the parties was within the margin of error for the nightly tracking. Among decided voters the Liberals stand at 32.5%, the NDP at 31.2%, the Conservatives at 25.9%, and the Green Party at 6.1%.
• Region – The Liberals are ahead in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. The NDP lead in Quebec and BC, while the Conservatives lead in the Prairies.
• Vote Potential – The NDP and the Liberals have the highest proportion (51% and 49% each), followed by the Conservatives at 35% (a new 12 month low), and the Greens at 26%. Vote potential is based on a series of independent questions for each party.
Survey Methodology 11 A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2014 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.