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Tories (33%) and Grits (32%) Battle for Lead Nationally over NDP (26%) While Orange Crash Continues in Quebec (NDP at 29%, Down 5): POLL 

Harper, Trudeau, Mulcair

Liberals (38%) have Slight Lead over Conservatives (35%) in Ontario and Key 905 Region of GTA (45% Liberal, 42% Conservative)

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Toronto, ON – While the Tories and Grits battle for the lead nationally, in Ontario and in the key 905 region of the GTA, the “orange crash” in Quebec continues with the NDP down 5 points in la belle province since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, 33% of decided eligible voters would vote for the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper (up 1 point since last week), while Justin Trudeau and the Liberals would receive 32% of the decided vote (down 1 point). All of these fluctuations are within the accepted level of error for the survey. The NDP continues its slow but steady drop nationally and would now receive 26% of the vote (down 1 point), while Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc have edged higher to 5% nationally (up 1 point), or 23% in Quebec. One in ten either wouldn’t vote (3%) or are unsure (10%).

The dynamics of this federal election campaign are unprecedented: all three major federal parties have been in all three positions – first, second, and third – at some point since the campaign began, and all three have also been statistically tied for the lead with each other.

It’s clear that momentum has shifted in the last few weeks of the campaign. In fact, four in ten (42%) perceive Justin Trudeau and the Liberals as having the most momentum, compared to fewer who believe that Mulcair and the NDP (24%), Harper and the Conservatives (23%), May and the Greens (8%) or Duceppe and the Bloc (3% nationally, 11% in Quebec) have the most momentum.

A majority (51%) of voters now believe that the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau now presents the best alternative to the Harper Conservative government, compared to 49% who believe Mulcair and the NDP are the best alternative. By comparison, at the end of July, just prior to the official start of the campaign, the NDP (62%) was seen as the best alternative over the Liberals (38%). This demonstrates that the anti-Tory vote is beginning to rally around the Grits.

The tight horserace nationally is reflected in the various regions of the country:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (35%), who are well ahead of the NDP (24%) and Green Party (3%).
    • In the 905 area code surrounding Toronto, the Liberals (45%) have a similar slight lead over the Conservative (42%) with the NDP well behind (11%) as the region solidifies as a two-horse race.
    • In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (39%) have the advantage over the NDP (31%), Conservatives (28%), and Greens (2%).
    • In Quebec, the NDP lead now sits at just six points over its competitors, who are all tied for 2nd position. The province is now a four-way race among the NDP (29%), Bloc (23%), Liberals (23%) and Conservatives (23%), with the Green Party (2%) trailing.
  • British Columbia remains a three-way race among the NDP (34%), Conservatives (31%) and Liberals (28%), with the Green Party (7%) registering its best showing nationally.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (51%) are well ahead of the Liberals (28%), NDP (17%) and Green Party (4%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) have a slight lead over the Liberals (36%) with the NDP (21%) and Green Party (4%) well back.
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (46%) continue to hold a firm lead over the Conservatives (26%), NDP (26%) and Green Party (2%).

While 48% of voters, overall, say they’re ‘absolutely certain’ of their vote choice on Election Day, Conservative voters (56%) are most likely to say they’re absolutely certain of their choice, while Liberal (43%) and NDP (43%) voters are less likely to say so – suggesting there is still a chance for the opposition vote to shift back and forth between the Liberals and the NDP.

Key Government Tracking Metrics Continue to Improve…

Explaining the recent improvement in vote support for the Conservatives is the slight but steady improvement in the key government tracking figures that often serve as good leading indicators for vote:

  • Four in ten (43%, up 1 point) approve (12% strongly/31% somewhat) of the performance of the Conservative government under Stephen Harper, while six in ten (57%, down 1 point) ‘disapprove’ (33% strongly/25% somewhat).
  • One in three (33%, unchanged) believe the ‘Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election, compared to two in three (67%, unchanged) who think it’s ‘time for another party to take over’.
  • Fully one half (50%, up 3 points) of voters ‘approve’ (11% strongly/39% somewhat) of the Federal Government’s overall management of the Canadian economy, while the other half (50%, down 3 points) ‘disapproves’ (20% strongly/30% somewhat). The improvement could be informed by GDP data showing the Canadian economy growing faster than expected in the second half, and news of an impending Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, although the TPP deal could emerge as a new ballot question and it is unclear how it might impact vote intentions going forward.
  • All three party leaders are tied as the one voters believe would make the best Prime Minister: Harper (34%, down 1 point), Trudeau (33%, up 1 point), Mulcair (33%, down 1 point).
  • In terms of who is best able to deal with Canada’s economy if elected on October 19th, Harper and the Tories (35%, unchanged) and Trudeau and the Liberals (35%, up 1 point) are tied, with Mulcair and the NDP (30%, down 1 point) behind.

What Should Happen in Minority Situation…

If the election were held today, no party would win a majority of the seats and the House of Commons would be in a minority government position. If the Conservatives win the most seats in the election but not a majority, one half (50%) of voters believe ‘the Conservatives should be given the chance to try and govern with the support of one of the other parties’. Even one quarter of Liberal (26%) and NDP (26%) voters believe the Tories should have a chance at governing.

In contrast, the other half (50%) of voters believe that ‘the Liberals and the NDP should immediately defeat the government when the House of Commons returns, and the Liberals and NDP should cooperate to govern’. Most Liberal (74%) and NDP (74%) voters feel this way.

The data also reveals that there is significantly more support for cooperation between the NDP and Liberals, regardless who leads, than for any party cooperation that involves the Conservatives.

  • Half (51%) of voters would support (17% strongly/34% somewhat) the Liberals governing with support from the NDP. This idea has a majority support among both Liberal (82%) and NDP (65%) voters.
  • Half (51%) of voters would support (19% strongly/32% somewhat) the NDP governing with support from the Liberals. This also has majority support among both NDP (83%) and Liberal (65%) voters.
  • Four in ten (37%) would support (10% strongly/27% somewhat) the Conservatives governing with support from the Liberals. While two thirds (67%) of Tory voters support this idea, just three in ten (30%) Liberals do.
  • Fewer (35%) would support (6% strongly/29% somewhat) the Conservatives governing with support from the NDP. Only a slim majority (56%) of Tory voters support this type of cooperation, with three in ten (30%) NDP voters supportive.
  • One in three (34%) would support (8% strongly/26% somewhat) the Liberals governing with support from Conservatives. While a slim majority (52%) of Liberals support this type of cooperation, only 33% of Conservatives do.
  • One in three (32%) would support (5% strongly/27% somewhat) the NDP governing with support from the Conservatives. Only 46% of NDP voters support this idea, with 29% of Tory voters being onside.

 

Toronto, ON – While the Tories and Grits battle for the lead nationally, in Ontario and in the key 905 region of the GTA, the “orange crash” in Quebec continues with the NDP down 5 points in la belle province since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, 33% of decided eligible voters would vote for the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper (up 1 point since last week), while Justin Trudeau and the Liberals would receive 32% of the decided vote (down 1 point). All of these fluctuations are within the accepted level of error for the survey. The NDP continues its slow but steady drop nationally and would now receive 26% of the vote (down 1 point), while Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc have edged higher to 5% nationally (up 1 point), or 23% in Quebec. One in ten either wouldn’t vote (3%) or are unsure (10%).

The dynamics of this federal election campaign are unprecedented: all three major federal parties have been in all three positions – first, second, and third – at some point since the campaign began, and all three have also been statistically tied for the lead with each other.

It’s clear that momentum has shifted in the last few weeks of the campaign. In fact, four in ten (42%) perceive Justin Trudeau and the Liberals as having the most momentum, compared to fewer who believe that Mulcair and the NDP (24%), Harper and the Conservatives (23%), May and the Greens (8%) or Duceppe and the Bloc (3% nationally, 11% in Quebec) have the most momentum.

A majority (51%) of voters now believe that the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau now presents the best alternative to the Harper Conservative government, compared to 49% who believe Mulcair and the NDP are the best alternative. By comparison, at the end of July, just prior to the official start of the campaign, the NDP (62%) was seen as the best alternative over the Liberals (38%). This demonstrates that the anti-Tory vote is beginning to rally around the Grits.

The tight horserace nationally is reflected in the various regions of the country:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (35%), who are well ahead of the NDP (24%) and Green Party (3%).
    • In the 905 area code surrounding Toronto, the Liberals (45%) have a similar slight lead over the Conservative (42%) with the NDP well behind (11%) as the region solidifies as a two-horse race.
    • In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (39%) have the advantage over the NDP (31%), Conservatives (28%), and Greens (2%).
    • In Quebec, the NDP lead now sits at just six points over its competitors, who are all tied for 2nd position. The province is now a four-way race among the NDP (29%), Bloc (23%), Liberals (23%) and Conservatives (23%), with the Green Party (2%) trailing.
  • British Columbia remains a three-way race among the NDP (34%), Conservatives (31%) and Liberals (28%), with the Green Party (7%) registering its best showing nationally.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (51%) are well ahead of the Liberals (28%), NDP (17%) and Green Party (4%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) have a slight lead over the Liberals (36%) with the NDP (21%) and Green Party (4%) well back.
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (46%) continue to hold a firm lead over the Conservatives (26%), NDP (26%) and Green Party (2%).

While 48% of voters, overall, say they’re ‘absolutely certain’ of their vote choice on Election Day, Conservative voters (56%) are most likely to say they’re absolutely certain of their choice, while Liberal (43%) and NDP (43%) voters are less likely to say so – suggesting there is still a chance for the opposition vote to shift back and forth between the Liberals and the NDP.

Key Government Tracking Metrics Continue to Improve…

Explaining the recent improvement in vote support for the Conservatives is the slight but steady improvement in the key government tracking figures that often serve as good leading indicators for vote:

  • Four in ten (43%, up 1 point) approve (12% strongly/31% somewhat) of the performance of the Conservative government under Stephen Harper, while six in ten (57%, down 1 point) ‘disapprove’ (33% strongly/25% somewhat).
  • One in three (33%, unchanged) believe the ‘Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election, compared to two in three (67%, unchanged) who think it’s ‘time for another party to take over’.
  • Fully one half (50%, up 3 points) of voters ‘approve’ (11% strongly/39% somewhat) of the Federal Government’s overall management of the Canadian economy, while the other half (50%, down 3 points) ‘disapproves’ (20% strongly/30% somewhat). The improvement could be informed by GDP data showing the Canadian economy growing faster than expected in the second half, and news of an impending Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, although the TPP deal could emerge as a new ballot question and it is unclear how it might impact vote intentions going forward.
  • All three party leaders are tied as the one voters believe would make the best Prime Minister: Harper (34%, down 1 point), Trudeau (33%, up 1 point), Mulcair (33%, down 1 point).
  • In terms of who is best able to deal with Canada’s economy if elected on October 19th, Harper and the Tories (35%, unchanged) and Trudeau and the Liberals (35%, up 1 point) are tied, with Mulcair and the NDP (30%, down 1 point) behind.

What Should Happen in Minority Situation…

If the election were held today, no party would win a majority of the seats and the House of Commons would be in a minority government position. If the Conservatives win the most seats in the election but not a majority, one half (50%) of voters believe ‘the Conservatives should be given the chance to try and govern with the support of one of the other parties’. Even one quarter of Liberal (26%) and NDP (26%) voters believe the Tories should have a chance at governing.

In contrast, the other half (50%) of voters believe that ‘the Liberals and the NDP should immediately defeat the government when the House of Commons returns, and the Liberals and NDP should cooperate to govern’. Most Liberal (74%) and NDP (74%) voters feel this way.

The data also reveals that there is significantly more support for cooperation between the NDP and Liberals, regardless who leads, than for any party cooperation that involves the Conservatives.

  • Half (51%) of voters would support (17% strongly/34% somewhat) the Liberals governing with support from the NDP. This idea has a majority support among both Liberal (82%) and NDP (65%) voters.
  • Half (51%) of voters would support (19% strongly/32% somewhat) the NDP governing with support from the Liberals. This also has majority support among both NDP (83%) and Liberal (65%) voters.
  • Four in ten (37%) would support (10% strongly/27% somewhat) the Conservatives governing with support from the Liberals. While two thirds (67%) of Tory voters support this idea, just three in ten (30%) Liberals do.
  • Fewer (35%) would support (6% strongly/29% somewhat) the Conservatives governing with support from the NDP. Only a slim majority (56%) of Tory voters support this type of cooperation, with three in ten (30%) NDP voters supportive.
  • One in three (34%) would support (8% strongly/26% somewhat) the Liberals governing with support from Conservatives. While a slim majority (52%) of Liberals support this type of cooperation, only 33% of Conservatives do.
  • One in three (32%) would support (5% strongly/27% somewhat) the NDP governing with support from the Conservatives. Only 46% of NDP voters support this idea, with 29% of Tory voters being onside.

 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 2 to 5, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,441 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel (comprising ~150,000 panelists) and non-panel sources (river sampling). Given Ipsos’ use of river sampling and a router to match respondents who may not qualify for other surveys with one they do qualify for (such as this poll), it is not possible to identify the number of respondents invited to participate in the survey, or a traditional measure of response rate. Weighting by region, age, gender and political variables was employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ – 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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