India Elections 2014 PUNJAB – AAP DAMAGED CONGRESS OR AKALI DAL-BJP ?
AAP will damage Congress or Akali Dal-BJP in Punjab? I discussed this question with many members of Punjabi community who were following India’s Lok Sabha Elections. The opinion was divided as many thought that the are elections are for Indian Parliament so Congress would suffer more than there were others who thought the issues related to Punjab are more important so Akalis would face a major backlash. Punjab had a unique situation
during the Lok Sabha elections this time where an anti-incumbency at the state level would hit NDA alliance which is ruling in Punjab and anti-Incumbency for the national issues would hit UPA which was the ruling alliance at the National level at time of the elections. Traditionally the fight in Punjab has been between Congress and Akali
Dal. This time the results have shown that AAP has broken the 2 party dominance in Punjab. AAP won 4 seats – Sangrur, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib and Patiala constituencies. Congress could manage only three seats in the state while SAD-BJP won six seats. Congress went down from 8 seats in 2009 to 3 seats this time while SAD-BJP won six
seats this time which is one more than 2009. I had mentioned earlier that there is huge anti-Incumbency against Akalis at the state level but they would benefit from the divide in anti-Incumbency votes among Congress and AAP. Punjab is facing a host of issues including Unemloyment in theYouth, Inflation, Drugs, Poor Infrastructure, Power Shortage, Corruption and Law and Order situation. AAP is in a very good position to capitalise
on Anti-Incumbency wave in Punjab. The new aspirational punjabi youth wants nothing but the best and the time to deliver is running out for all political parties. Now lets talk about the vote share along with seats won which will highlight that we have a three way race now in Punjab. AAP managed to get a vote share of 24.4 per cent during its maiden contest of the Lok Sabha polls in the state. Congress’ vote share with a win on three of the total of 13 seats it contested came down by about 12.13 per cent to 33.1 per cent this time as compared with the vote share of 45.23 per cent when it had contested 13 seats and won eight five years ago. SAD retained its seat share of four of the 10 seats it contested but the vote share fell to 26.3 per cent- a decline of 7.55 per cent as compared with the vote share of 33.85 per cent five years back when it had fought for 10 seats. BJP had contested three seats each in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls and this time its seat share increased to two from one five years back. But the vote share of BJP declined by 1.36 per cent to 8.7 per cent from 10.06 per cent in 2009. The AAP vote share (24.4 percent) is only 1.9 percent less than SAD (26.3). Many NRIs from across the globe went to India and supported
various parties, there were many in Canada also who supported AAP in Punjab. Will things in Punjab change or not can be debatable but Political Landscape in Punjab has changed with the entry of AAP