The House of Commons is heading toward a decisive vote Monday evening that will determine not only the fate of the Liberal government’s first budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney, but also whether Canadians may be pushed into another election. The budget motion, which asks MPs to approve the government’s overall fiscal direction, is a confidence vote—meaning the government will fall if it does not pass.
Earlier this month, the Liberals presented a budget that includes billions in new spending to cushion the economy from U.S. tariff impacts, along with major public-service reductions aimed at generating significant long-term savings. Despite gaining a new MP—former Conservative Chris d’Entremont, who crossed the floor—the Liberals still lack a majority and will need support from at least one opposition party.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne urged MPs to reflect deeply on the vote’s significance, calling on them to rise above partisanship and “fight for Canada” rather than engage in political manoeuvring. While the Liberals have already survived two earlier confidence votes tied to budget measures, the outcome of Monday’s vote remains uncertain.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has vowed his caucus will unanimously oppose the budget. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has also reaffirmed that his party intends to vote against it. Green Leader Elizabeth May said she is currently opposed unless the government delivers stronger climate measures, though she acknowledged she is torn because Canadians “don’t want another election right away.”
With other parties unlikely to shift their positions, all attention is now on the NDP. Interim Leader Don Davies has raised “serious concerns” about the budget but hasn’t ruled out supporting it. Some NDP ridings—including Davies’s own—stand to benefit from targeted budget measures, which could influence the party’s final decision. As of Sunday, the New Democrats had not yet announced how they will vote, leaving the government’s fate hanging in the balance.
