Ontario’s political landscape remains largely unchanged after three provincial byelections Thursday, with Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives winning two seats and the New Democrats retaining another.
The Progressive Conservatives held Hamilton East–Stoney Creek and York–Simcoe, while the NDP maintained its grip on Scarborough Southwest. Voter turnout was low, with just over 25 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots across the three ridings, according to unofficial Elections Ontario results.
In Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, longtime Hamilton city councillor Jeff Beattie won for the Progressive Conservatives with nearly 39 per cent of the vote. NDP candidate Monique Taylor finished second with approximately 33 per cent, while Liberal candidate Heino Doessing placed third with 23 per cent.
Taylor previously served 14 years as an Ontario MPP in a neighbouring riding before resigning to unsuccessfully seek a federal seat.
Beattie said economic uncertainty and Canada’s increasingly difficult trade relationship with the United States were major concerns among voters.
He described winning the seat as “the honour of a lifetime” and said residents were anxious about what continued trade tensions could mean for their jobs and communities.
Premier Doug Ford joined Beattie at his campaign event in Hamilton and framed the result as an endorsement of his government’s approach to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Ford pledged that his government would continue fighting to protect Ontario workers, jobs and communities from the effects of U.S. trade measures.
The Progressive Conservatives also retained York–Simcoe, where Susan Lahey captured 49.8 per cent of the vote, defeating Liberal candidate Naomi Davison, who received 38.8 per cent.
Lahey succeeds former Treasury Board president Caroline Mulroney, who resigned from the legislature in June. Conservatives have represented the riding since it was created in 2007.
In Scarborough Southwest, the New Democrats prevailed in a closely watched contest with the Liberals. NDP candidate Fatima Shaban won with more than 40 per cent of the vote.
During her victory speech, Shaban pledged to focus on the cost of living, saying voters had sent a clear message that affordability must be treated as a priority rather than an afterthought.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles portrayed Shaban’s victory as evidence that her party remains the strongest alternative to Ford’s Progressive Conservative government.
Candidates across the three ridings said traditional provincial concerns — including health care, education and affordability — repeatedly emerged during the campaigns. However, Canada’s escalating trade tensions with the United States also played a significant role.
Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, said the trade dispute may have strengthened Ford politically by encouraging voters to rally around the provincial government during a period of economic uncertainty.
That effect could have been particularly significant in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, where the steel industry is highly exposed to U.S. tariffs.
The trade dispute may also have made it more difficult for opposition parties to turn the byelections into a referendum on controversies surrounding Ford’s government.
The Progressive Conservative government has faced criticism in recent months over several issues, including Ford’s decision to purchase a private jet for nearly $29 million before reversing the move following public backlash.
The government has also faced scrutiny over Toronto-area cabinet ministers and legislators charging hotel stays in the city to taxpayers. The controversy contributed to the resignation of Tourism Minister Stan Cho, while several other politicians were required to repay expenses.
Despite those controversies, Thursday’s results produced no significant shift in the balance of power at Queen’s Park.
For Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, retaining both Hamilton East–Stoney Creek and York–Simcoe represents a successful defence of their seats. For the NDP, holding Scarborough Southwest provides the party with its own victory as it seeks to position itself as the primary alternative to the government.
With turnout barely exceeding 25 per cent across the three contests, however, the byelection results offer only a limited indication of how Ontario voters may respond in a future provincewide election.
