Smith’s Ottawa pipeline deal faces backlash from UCP base pushing for separation

As Alberta Premier Danielle Smith prepares to sign a new energy memorandum of understanding with Prime Minister Mark Carney, the political spotlight is shifting to how this agreement will land with her staunchly anti-Ottawa base. With the United Conservative Party’s annual convention set for this weekend in Edmonton, critics argue the timing is no coincidence — and that the deal is aimed at rallying the party faithful. B.C. Energy Minister Adrian Dix was blunt in his assessment, suggesting the pipeline accord is more about politics than policy. He said the MOU appears timed to “unite the right” ahead of the convention, where appeasing party activists has historically been a priority.

Last year, the lead-up to the AGM saw the UCP push through contentious legislation affecting transgender youth and amendments to the Alberta Bill of Rights. But even if Smith hopes this federal-provincial agreement energizes grassroots members before AGM 2025, many within the party’s activist core remain unmoved. Rancher Tim Hoven, part of the UCP’s hardline wing, dismissed the deal’s impact outright. Support for pipelines is strong, he noted, but trust in Ottawa has long evaporated — and for many in the base, incremental agreements no longer satisfy. Instead, they want Alberta to break away entirely.

While most Albertans oppose separation, polling shows a majority of UCP supporters back the idea. Those who show up at conventions tend to sit on the party’s more uncompromising flank, and their appetite for independence is even stronger. Current UCP president Rob Smith has estimated that two-thirds to three-quarters of the base now lean separatist. Mitch Sylvestre, one of the movement’s prominent organizers and head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, embodies this sentiment. The Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul constituency president — whose district consistently sends the most delegates to the convention — dismissed the Carney deal as empty symbolism. To him, an MOU that doesn’t guarantee a pipeline or roll back federal climate policies is “a useless piece of paper,” far from a meaningful win. That frustration runs deep. Many separatist-leaning Conservatives believe Ottawa’s rules have long constrained Alberta’s economic ambitions.

Their wish list includes a provincially run pension plan, a provincial police force, Senate reform, and a dramatic overhaul of equalization — the same issues Smith amplified during her Alberta Next consultations following the last election. As the UCP convention begins, all eyes will be on how Smith responds to her base’s demands. With a pipeline agreement in hand and expectations rising, the premier is under pressure to reveal which anti-Ottawa measures — including potential referendums next spring — she plans to pursue next.