Trump and Carney keep it civil at APEC dinner — but frosty silence speaks volumes

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shared a table — and little else — at a formal dinner ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit on Wednesday, in a tense but telling snapshot of the strained U.S.-Canada relationship. Seated across from each other, the two leaders raised glasses in a brief ceremonial toast, but sources described the exchange as “chilly” and largely wordless, underscoring the fallout from Trump’s recent decision to terminate trade talks with Canada over Ontario’s anti-tariff television ad that aired in the U.S. When asked afterward whether he had spoken with Trump, Carney replied diplomatically that he’d had “very good conversations with all the presidents” in attendance — though observers noted the pointed vagueness.

The dinner marked the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since the collapse of bilateral trade negotiations, and it came amid growing uncertainty about Canada’s standing between its two largest trading partners, the United States and China. As Carney arrived in South Korea, he was greeted by a stark visual reminder of his predicament — Air Force One parked directly in front of his plane on the tarmac.

Carney’s mission at APEC is complicated: repairing ties with Washington while reopening channels with Beijing to diversify Canada’s trade portfolio. But any overtures to China risk further angering Trump, who has been openly hostile to Canada’s trade positioning.
Trump doubled down on social media Wednesday, posting: “Didn’t come all the way to South Korea to talk with Canada.” The comment effectively dismissed prospects for any substantive U.S.-Canada dialogue during the summit.

Carney is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, a high-stakes encounter that could test Ottawa’s balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
Reports in U.S. media suggest Trump may reduce tariffs on Chinese imports if Beijing agrees to tighten controls on fentanyl precursor chemicals — signaling a possible thaw in U.S.-China relations.
For Canada, however, any move to ease tensions with China — including reconsidering electric vehicle (EV) tariffs imposed earlier this year at the urging of Washington — could provoke backlash in both capitals.
“China doesn’t play by our geopolitical rules,” said Jonathan Berkshire-Miller, of Pendulum Geopolitics Advisory.
“If Carney removes EV tariffs to win Beijing’s favour, it’ll look remarkably weak in Washington — and probably won’t buy him much goodwill in Beijing, either.” Carney is also facing skepticism in Asia over Canada’s long-term commitment to the Indo-Pacific. Regional allies — including South Korea, where Carney is visiting shipyards tied to Canada’s submarine procurement — are eager for proof that Ottawa’s pivot to Asia extends beyond words.

“Korea and Canada need each other,” said Young-gi Ahn, South Korea’s acting ambassador to Canada. “This visit is a chance to re-emphasize that partnership amid global uncertainty.” While Carney’s efforts have focused on rebuilding trust and trade diversity, Trump and Xi are racing ahead with competing economic deals. Trump signed multiple rare earth mineral agreements with Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, part of a broader bid to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains.
Days later, China announced an upgraded free trade pact with the ASEAN bloc, expanding cooperation in transportation, digital trade, and the green economy — a clear show of economic muscle ahead of the APEC summit.

For now, the image of Trump and Carney raising glasses without exchanging words may define Canada’s diplomatic moment — a polite tableau masking a deep and widening rift.
As the summit continues, Carney will need to prove that Canada can walk the tightrope between its two most powerful partners — without losing its footing on either side.