The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is now moving from a delayed initial phase into a far more complicated second stage, with one hostage still believed to be held in Gaza. The 20-point plan backed by President Donald Trump and endorsed by the UN Security Council aims to dismantle Hamas’ governance, create a demilitarized Gaza under international oversight, and open a pathway toward normalization between Israel and Arab states alongside the possibility of Palestinian statehood. However, analysts warn that any breakdown in implementation could leave Gaza fragmented, unstable and dependent on humanitarian aid, with Israel maintaining a prolonged military footprint and Hamas retaining pockets of control. A central component of the next stage involves the deployment of an International Stabilization Force tasked with securing Gaza and training Palestinian police, yet no command structure, legal mandate or rules of engagement have been finalized. Although Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia have expressed interest, none has formally committed, while Hamas rejects full disarmament and Israel remains hesitant to cede security authority to an external force.
At the political level, Trump intends to chair an oversight board to supervise a technocratic Palestinian governing body, with Tony Blair named as a potential member, but no broader composition has been confirmed. The board would guide reconstruction and reforms through the Palestinian Authority with the long-term goal of transferring control to an internationally recognized Palestinian leadership. Yet this framework risks immediate friction, given Israel’s resistance to PA involvement and Palestinian concerns that such a body could appear symbolic rather than sovereign. Economic reconstruction presents another major obstacle: although a donor conference is being prepared by Egypt, the UN estimates rebuilding costs at more than $70 billion and no firm financial commitments have been made, making consensus unlikely amid competing national conditions and regional priorities.
Disarmament remains the most contentious sticking point. While the plan requires Hamas to surrender all weapons under international monitoring, the group insists it will not disarm without a definitive end to occupation. Senior figure Bassem Naim’s suggestion of “freezing” arms falls far short of Israel’s demands and threatens progress on every subsequent benchmark, including reconstruction and Israeli withdrawals. Meanwhile, Gaza’s proposed “apolitical” governing committee lacks clarity and legitimacy, as Israel opposes any figure connected to either Hamas or the PA, raising fears that the entity could be reduced to a façade without true authority or public backing. Israel currently controls more than half of Gaza and views the Yellow Line as a lasting security barrier, yet no withdrawal timelines or demilitarization benchmarks have been articulated. Without concrete deadlines, Gaza risks remaining indefinitely partitioned. Added to this, the plan gestures loosely toward Palestinian statehood through PA reforms, but Israel rejects the notion of a sovereign Palestinian state and any PA role in Gaza, widening the gap between negotiation rhetoric and practical incentives for Palestinian cooperation.
