New research from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities suggests Canadian travel to the United States has sharply declined, with several major American cities experiencing drops of more than 50 per cent in Canadian visitors over the past two years.
According to the study, popular destinations including Miami, Naples, North Port, San Francisco, Yuma and Brownsville saw some of the steepest declines based on cellphone mobility data. Tourist hubs and border-region cities were particularly affected as political tensions and economic uncertainty weighed on cross-border travel.
Researchers analyzed data from Canadian mobile devices between April 2024 and March 2026 as part of the “Mapping Tariffs” project, which tracks the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, annexation threats and broader political disputes between the two countries.
The study found that 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas recorded declines in Canadian travel of at least 50 per cent during the examined period. Only three cities — Portland, Gainesville and Cleveland — saw travel from Canada increase.
Researchers noted that the cellphone tracking data differs from traditional border-crossing estimates because it also captures freight-related travel. The dataset may also include Canadians who had been temporarily living in the United States before returning home.
