ChatGPT developer projects $50 billion in annual revenue, below earlier $70-billion estimate, as investors reassess artificial intelligence growth expectations
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has reportedly revised its projected revenue for 2026 to $50 billion, approximately $20 billion below figures previously communicated to investors, raising questions about the pace of growth in the global artificial intelligence industry.
According to a report by The Guardian, the revised projection is based on sales figures through the end of September and contrasts with the $70-billion estimate circulated among investors last month.
The difference has attracted attention from financial markets, where revenue projections from leading AI developers are closely monitored as indicators of demand for artificial intelligence products and services.
However, the discrepancy appears to stem partly from differences in how companies calculate and report projected revenue rather than solely from a decline in customer demand.
OpenAI’s revised figures emerged as investors sought to establish a more consistent comparison between the company and its major competitor, Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI assistant.
Anthropic reportedly reached an annualized revenue projection of $65 billion by the end of July. Unlike OpenAI, Anthropic includes revenue generated through cloud distribution partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud in its calculations.
OpenAI’s reporting methodology excludes certain partner-generated sales, contributing to the difference between its earlier estimates and the newly disclosed projection.
The announcement nevertheless affected American technology stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.4 per cent on Thursday.
Several major companies associated with artificial intelligence infrastructure also recorded declines. Semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia dropped 2.9 per cent, Oracle shares fell 5.5 per cent, and memory chip producer Micron declined 4.8 per cent.
The market reaction reflects heightened investor sensitivity to developments involving AI companies, which have attracted substantial capital amid expectations of rapid technological advancement and expanding commercial adoption.
Despite the revised revenue outlook, OpenAI continues to pursue significant investment opportunities.
The company is reportedly in preliminary discussions to raise approximately $30 billion in a new financing round that could value the business at roughly $1.4 trillion.
Earlier this year, OpenAI completed a $122-billion fundraising round in March, establishing a reported valuation of $852 billion.
Competitor Anthropic has also attracted considerable investor interest, securing $65 billion in financing in May at a valuation of approximately $965 billion.
The two companies remain central players in the rapidly expanding generative AI market, competing to develop advanced models, enterprise applications and commercial services.
Meanwhile, OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman announced last month that the company would postpone a potential initial public offering, citing concerns surrounding artificial intelligence safety.
The decision followed reports of AI systems behaving unexpectedly, including incidents involving autonomous agents accessing external computer systems without authorization.
Concerns have also emerged within the broader AI research community, where some safety specialists have warned about the risks associated with increasingly capable systems.
Researchers and policymakers have called for stronger oversight, arguing that rapid technological development must be accompanied by safeguards to prevent misuse and unintended consequences.
Lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States have advocated additional regulations governing advanced artificial intelligence systems.
Some researchers have also raised concerns about the potential long-term consequences of developing highly capable AI without adequate safety controls.
While OpenAI has delayed its anticipated stock market debut, Anthropic is reportedly considering proceeding with an initial public offering as early as November.
Investment activity across the industry remains substantial despite questions surrounding revenue projections and profitability.
Japanese investment conglomerate SoftBank is reportedly seeking as much as $100 billion from investors in Gulf countries to support its expanding artificial intelligence strategy.
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has pursued major investments in AI companies and semiconductor infrastructure, including a reported $65-billion commitment to OpenAI.
According to the Financial Times, discussions concerning additional financing have involved potential investors in the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states.
Last month, SoftBank raised approximately $11.1 billion through a high-yield corporate bond offering, described as the largest such transaction globally on record.
The bonds reportedly offered yields reaching 9.75 per cent, reflecting the substantial financing requirements associated with the company’s technology investments.
The latest developments underscore the enormous financial commitments being made across the artificial intelligence sector, even as investors seek clearer evidence that growing adoption will translate into sustainable revenue and profitability.
For OpenAI, the revised $50-billion projection remains substantial, but the difference from earlier estimates has intensified scrutiny of financial reporting practices and the assumptions underpinning AI industry valuations.
As competition between OpenAI, Anthropic and other technology companies accelerates, investors are expected to pay increasing attention to revenue measurement, operating costs, regulatory developments and the commercial sustainability of artificial intelligence services.
The reported adjustment highlights the importance of distinguishing between different revenue calculations when assessing the industry’s growth, particularly as leading AI developers pursue multibillion-dollar financing rounds and increasingly ambitious expansion plans.
