Representatives from Canada, the United States and Mexico are set to meet virtually Wednesday for the first formal review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), but the Trump administration is not expected to support a 16-year extension of the continental trade pact.
July 1 marks the deadline for all three countries to indicate whether they want to renew CUSMA. However, even if the United States does not agree to an extension, the agreement will remain in force under annual rolling reviews for up to 10 years before it expires, unless a renewal is reached.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he does not expect any “drama” during this week’s discussions, while both Canada and Mexico have reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining the agreement.
CUSMA, negotiated during President Donald Trump’s first term to replace North American Free Trade Agreement, has come under renewed scrutiny since Trump’s return to office. The U.S. president has described the deal as “irrelevant” and questioned whether it has outlived its purpose.
Trade negotiations between Washington and Mexico have already begun, but formal talks between Canada and the United States have yet to start.
Trade experts say the missed renewal deadline is unlikely to have an immediate impact. Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said continued dialogue is more important than meeting the July 1 milestone, noting that markets are increasingly adapting to ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Andrew Hale, a fellow at Advancing American Freedom, warned that prolonged uncertainty could discourage long-term investment and weaken North America’s global competitiveness. He also suggested that annual CUSMA reviews under the Trump administration could lead to recurring trade disputes.
Within the Trump administration, views on CUSMA remain divided. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said key parts of the agreement continue to work well, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior adviser Peter Navarro have taken a more critical stance.
Despite the uncertainty, CUSMA will remain in effect unless one of the three member countries formally provides six months’ notice of its intention to withdraw from the agreement.
