Persistent challenges continue to impact the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market, with home sales in March hitting their lowest level for the month in at least 23 years, according to the latest report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
March usually marks the beginning of the spring housing season — a period that typically brings a rebound in activity. But instead of a recovery, this year’s spring market has struggled to take off, raising concerns that 2025 could be a difficult year for the housing sector, which many had hoped would see a turnaround.
The report highlights how global economic tension — particularly the escalating tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump — along with Canada’s looming federal election, have created an atmosphere of uncertainty. As a result, many prospective buyers are staying on the sidelines.
“If trade tensions ease or if policies are introduced to reduce the impact of tariffs, we could see an improvement in home sales,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer. “Buyers need to feel secure in their employment before they’re ready to take on long-term mortgage commitments.”
Home sales in the GTA fell 23 per cent year-over-year in March, with only 5,011 transactions recorded. Meanwhile, the number of new listings surged nearly 29 per cent to over 17,000, creating a clear shift in market dynamics.
With the sales-to-new-listings ratio now at 29 per cent, the market has entered a buyers’ zone — giving buyers greater selection and bargaining power. All major housing types saw significant sales declines: detached homes dropped 25 per cent, semi-detached were down 16 per cent, townhomes fell 23 per cent, and condo sales declined by 23.5 per cent.
The average price of homes in the GTA dipped 2.5 per cent year-over-year to $1.09 million. Specific property types also saw modest declines: detached homes fell by 1.8 per cent, semi-detached by 0.9 per cent, townhomes by 3.5 per cent, and condos by 2.6 per cent.
Despite the downturn in sales, affordability has slightly improved thanks to falling home prices and multiple interest rate cuts over the past year. This trend has eased pressure on monthly mortgage payments, making home ownership more accessible.
“Affordability has gradually improved over the last year, and with further rate cuts expected this spring, conditions could become even more favourable for buyers,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule. “Increased inventory also means buyers have more choice and room to negotiate. Once there’s greater economic and job certainty, market activity is expected to pick up.”
Still, concerns remain. The broader real estate sector is being affected by declining confidence, and experts warn that ongoing U.S. tariffs could make it harder for many Canadians to qualify for mortgages — especially self-employed individuals, as some banks are already tightening lending rules for them.
Additionally, Trump’s tariffs are driving up construction costs, which could delay much-needed housing development at a time when demand is high across Canada.
