A new Spark Insights poll suggests support for Alberta separating from Canada remains limited, despite ongoing political debate ahead of a proposed referendum process this fall.
The survey, conducted between June 7 and June 12 among 777 Alberta adults, found that 15 per cent of respondents support Alberta leaving Canada, while 73 per cent oppose separation and 12 per cent remain undecided. The results are largely unchanged from a similar poll conducted in April.
Support for separation is significantly higher among federal Conservative voters. Within that group, 27 per cent favour separation, 58 per cent oppose it, and 16 per cent are unsure.
The poll also asked Albertans how they would vote on Premier Danielle Smith’s proposed referendum question this fall, which would seek approval to begin the process of a binding referendum on separation. Twenty-one per cent said they would vote in favour, while 66 per cent said they would vote against it and 9 per cent remain undecided.
Most respondents believe separation would have negative consequences for the province. Majorities said leaving Canada would be harmful to Alberta’s economy, increase taxes and government costs, weaken education and health-care services, and negatively affect them personally.
The survey also found little appetite for a simple majority deciding Alberta’s future. If a separation referendum were eventually held, 62 per cent said the threshold should be higher than 50 per cent plus one vote, while 32 per cent supported a simple majority standard. Another five per cent said Alberta should never separate under any circumstances.
Among Conservative voters, opinion is more divided on the threshold question, with 43 per cent supporting a 50-per-cent-plus-one standard and 52 per cent favouring a higher threshold.
According to Spark Insights Chairman Bruce Anderson, the findings suggest separatist sentiment has not gained momentum in recent months and would likely face a decisive defeat if Albertans were asked to vote today. He noted that federal Conservative voters remain the key battleground in the debate, particularly as prominent figures such as former prime minister Stephen Harper and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre face growing pressure to weigh in on the issue.
