The race to fill six vacant seats in the House of Commons is set to begin as several MPs prepare to leave federal politics, creating a series of byelections that could have implications for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s majority government.
Two MPs officially resigned last week after Parliament adjourned for the summer. Former Liberal cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson is departing Ottawa to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union, while former Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is entering Quebec provincial politics as a candidate for the Parti Québécois.
Under federal election rules, once the Speaker of the House informs the Chief Electoral Officer of a vacancy, the prime minister has between 11 and 180 days to call a byelection. Campaigns must run for at least 36 days and can last up to 50 days.
Four additional MPs are expected to resign in the coming months, including former Liberal cabinet ministers Steven Guilbeault and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith. Independent MP Alexandre Boulerice, formerly of the NDP, plans to leave federal politics to pursue a provincial run in Quebec, while Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall has indicated she will formally resign on August 31.
With six seats expected to become vacant, the government may choose to bundle the byelections together rather than hold separate votes. If that happens, Canadians in the affected ridings may not head to the polls until late fall, with November or December emerging as likely timelines. The government is also expected to consider the timing of Quebec’s provincial election, scheduled for October 5, as three of the vacancies are located in that province.
Despite the departures, the Liberals are expected to maintain control of the House when Parliament returns in September. The party held 173 seats when the House rose for the summer, compared with 169 combined seats for opposition parties.
Following the resignations of Wilkinson and Savard-Tremblay, the Liberals now hold 172 seats while opposition parties hold 168. Once additional MPs formally leave their posts, the government is expected to sit with 170 MPs, while opposition parties collectively hold 166 votes.
Although that would place the Liberals below the 172-seat threshold typically required for a majority in a fully occupied House, vacant seats lower the effective voting total. As a result, the Liberals will continue to function as a majority government for the time being.
The upcoming byelections will ultimately determine whether that majority status remains intact. The Liberals need to win at least one of the six contests to preserve a technical majority in the House of Commons. If they were to lose all six seats, the government would fall back into minority territory and become more reliant on support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
With several high-profile departures and six seats up for grabs, the byelection season is shaping up to be an important political test for both the governing Liberals and the opposition parties heading into the fall parliamentary session.
